Australian politicians are being sidelined in Kiribati because of fears that the atoll state’s president is being courted by China.
A senior US State Department official confirmed to AAP that visa applications were dragging on or being rejected, while work on a contract with Kiribati – which should have been concluded a year ago – was put on hold indefinitely.
Although Australia is not the only country excluded from the presidency, there are fears that a strained relationship will leave a vacuum for China.
Australian High Commissioner Karen Bray – appointed in April 2023 – is in limbo after experiencing delays in processing paperwork in recent months, the senior official confirmed.
Ms Bray referred an AAP query back to the ministry, which does not comment on individual visas.
The limited processing capacity of Kiribati’s small public service and problems with visa applications contributed to the delay, the source said.
An Australian naval officer who was supervising the operations of a Guardian patrol boat with the Kiribati police – the country has no armed forces – was also deported and banned for two years for submitting his papers late.
A second ship is expected to arrive in July and another person will be sent to Kiribati to assist local forces.
President Taneti Maamau’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
While officials have argued that the visas serve as a cover for formalities, there have also been suspicions that they reflect a broader indifference towards Australia and its traditional partners.
A delegation from the Pacific Media Assistance Scheme – described by the department as “Australia’s flagship support for a stronger and more independent media sector in the Pacific” – was also unable to enter, two people familiar with the situation told AAP.
Delivery partner ABC was asked for comment.
According to a source, the visit was postponed until September, after the parliamentary elections on the island.
Based on a memorandum of understanding signed earlier this year, a final text for a new comprehensive bilateral strategic partnership agreement should be agreed by July 2023.
However, at Kiribati’s instigation, the talks were put on hold because the president wanted to wait until a new government was elected later this year.
“Australia will exercise patience and continue to demonstrate that we remain a reliable and valuable partner,” said Pacific Minister Pat Conroy’s spokesman.
The memorandum, which was not made public but seen by AAP, included a section on Australia’s cooperation with Kiribati in border and policing matters.
This also included a commitment to expand the police barracks and to support the local service, including training.
The design for the police barracks has been completed, work is expected to begin later this year and “extended police training is being undertaken as part of the Pacific Police Development Programme,” the ministry confirmed.
However, uniformed Chinese police officers have been involved in community policing and training since at least early 2024, despite Mr Conroy’s warning that China would play no role in policing across the region.
Australian David Lambourne, who had lived in Kiribati for nearly three decades and served on the Supreme Court in Tarawa, was deposed and eventually expelled from the country after ruling against the president.
During the lengthy legal proceedings, which included the removal of judges who had ruled in his favour, he was asked to leave an Australian Embassy event that Mr Maamau had attended and was advised not to attend any further events for fear that doing so would anger the President.
Australia has expressed concerns about the rule of law in Kiribati, ministry officials said earlier at a parliamentary hearing.
Australian officials were careful not to draw attention to their meetings with his wife, opposition leader Tessie Lambourne.
Academics were also denied entry, presumably to avoid close media scrutiny.
At Kiribati’s behest, high-level diplomatic visits have been suspended ahead of the elections, but Australia is making progress in meeting some of its commitments set out in the memorandum.
The delay or non-renewal of Australian visas is worrying because it suggests that China may have exerted influence on the Kiribati government, said Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australia Strategic Policy Institute.
This underscores China’s larger goal of pushing Australia and the United States out of the region, Dr Davis said.
“Their intention is obviously to infiltrate the government there in order to gain real influence and control,” he said.
Under Mr Maamau, Kiribati shifted its diplomatic allegiance from Taipei to Beijing in 2019 as the Chinese Communist Party pushed for recognition as China’s sole government to anger Taiwan.
While the collapse of the rule of law cannot be attributed to China, the government in Maamau is facing a diplomatic change as Ms Lambourne is a former ambassador to Taiwan, said an Australian legal expert on condition of anonymity in order to speak openly about the case.
The deportation of Mr Lambourne was an attempt to weaken the opposition leader, the expert said.
Ms Lambourne accused China of being behind Mr Maamau’s withdrawal from the Pacific Islands Forum in July 2022.
This came just months after the foreign minister visited Kiribati as Beijing attempted to negotiate a security pact with ten Pacific states, which was rejected by the region.
Following a diplomatic push by Fiji’s new Prime Minister, it rejoined the regional body in January 2023.
Kiribati also benefited from an enormous financial windfall after the change in diplomatic alliances, says Riley Duke, co-author of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific aid map.
The analyst, who maps aid and development across the Pacific, pointed to the flood of money from China that came after it shifted diplomatic relations from Taiwan to Beijing, while Australia’s usual annual aid payments of $30 million to $45 million applied to it.
The centerpiece of China’s post-transition aid, a $60 million support package that included a commercial aircraft that Taiwan previously refused to finance, amounted to about 20 percent of the small country’s GDP, he noted.
Beijing is now competing with Australia for the title of largest donor to the atoll state, which has hardly been controversial in the past, he said.
The strategically located state is located between Australia and America and close to Hawaii, where the headquarters of the US Indo-Pacific Command is located.
Dr Davis expressed concerns about China’s increasing use of grey area tactics, describing it as an “iron fist in a velvet glove”.
This could take the form of surveillance drones or coast guard vessels formerly owned by the Chinese Navy that were designed to help Kiribati monitor its waters while also serving as a de facto military presence, he said.